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GBP UK consumer lending data beat expectations with a £5.2bn increase for December, and November’s figure was revised up to the same figure which suggested consumer spending was resilient, although mortgage approvals declined. The Bank of England’s Mark Carney stated that investment was likely to strengthen in 2019 and that...
VIEW FULL ARTICLEGBP Political uncertainty continued to weigh on the Pound as the House of Lords Constitution Committee stated that there were major flaws with EU withdrawal legislation. EU ministers signed off on a negotiating stance for a transition arrangement on unchanged terms until the end of 2020, but no institutional representation.
VIEW FULL ARTICLEGBP The first UK GDP reading showed expansion of 0.5% in Q4 2017, compared with consensus forecasts of 0.4%. Bank of England Governor Carney stated that the negative impact of Brexit uncertainty held annual growth at 1.5% and if it weren’t for that it would have been significantly higher.
VIEW FULL ARTICLEGBP CBI retail sales printed in line with consensus forecasts with 12 for January, down from 20 in December. Retailers remain cautious of February’s outlook and there was further evidence of weakness in the car sector. Sterling capitalised on Dollar weakness and advanced to fresh 19-month highs near 1.4350.
VIEW FULL ARTICLEGBP As expected, the UK unemployment rate held at 4.3% in the three months to December and employment increased to a record high. January claimant count data recorded an increase of 8,600 and December’s figure was revised up to 12,200.
VIEW FULL ARTICLEGBP December’s government borrowing figures printed lower than expected, partly due to an EU credit. For the first nine months of fiscal year 2017/18, there was a decline in the deficit to £50.0bn from £56.6bn the previous year, although revenue growth was subdued.
VIEW FULL ARTICLEGBP Expectations of solid growth and a positive outlook towards Brexit negotiations bolstered Sterling confidence throughout yesterday. As the Dollar faded, the Pound initially strengthened to highs above 1.3950, a new fresh 19-month high. The Euro dropped below a significant support level close to 1.1365.
VIEW FULL ARTICLEGBP UK retail sales declined 1.5% for December against consensus forecasts of a 0.6% decline. Year-on-year retail sales nudged down slightly to 1.4% from 1.5% previously. Despite the monthly data falling well below expectations, the overall impact was limited given distortions over the past two months from seasonal factors.
VIEW FULL ARTICLEGBP A lack of UK economic data and a dearth of Brexit headlines only assisted underlying Sterling sentiment. There was underlying support from expectations that reserve managers were increasing their Sterling holdings and moving away from the US Dollar; also, increased positivity in the Brexit outlook fuelled support for the Pound.
VIEW FULL ARTICLEGBP Michael Saunders, an external Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member, stated that pay growth was likely to strengthen to at least 3.0% for 2018 and that there was not much slack left in the labour market.
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