UK construction PMI’s recovered slightly to 44.2 for October, up from 43.3 but still close to 10-year lows and maintaining expectations of a cautious Bank of England policy statement on Thursday. Sterling drifted lower against the Dollar, hitting lows of 1.2876 due to a stronger greenback and an election poll showing the Conservatives position as slightly weaker than expected.
Boris Johnson stated that an election win will mean he will take Britain out of the EU ‘by the end of January.’ The appointment of a new Speaker of the House of Commons was the political news of the day, Lindsay Hoyle won the vote after promising to heal divisions over Brexit. It’s reported that Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn will deliver a speech today arguing that he can renegotiate a better Brexit deal and hold a second EU referendum before summer 2020. UK October Services PMI is due this morning and is forecast to still print within catactionary territory.
The Dollar moved higher yesterday on the back of a generalized risk-on mood following auspicious headlines from the US-China trade front. In fact, news was citing the possibility that the US could roll back tariffs on Chinese products, all under the recently announced ‘Phase One’ deal. Positive developments in the trade front lifted US yields, pushed stocks to record highs and favoured the exodus from the safe havens, at the same time morphing into fresh positivity for the buck.
In the US data space, the ISM Non-Manufacturing will be in centre stage later today seconded by Trade Balance figures, Markit’s final October Services PMI and JOLT Job Openings. In addition, Richmond Fed T.Barkin will speak in Baltimore and Dallas Fed R.Kaplan speaks in Dallas.
The Euro against the Dollar is looking heavy even despite the trade optimism and risk-on mood in the financial markets. The common currency fell from 1.1170 to 1.1121 yesterday and the resulting bearish push down is widely considered an early warning of an impending slump lower.
The US-China trade war has taken a heavy toll on the German economy, pushing the Eurozone's manufacturing powerhouse to the brink of a recession. Therefore, the heightened prospects of the two reaching a trade deal is good news for Germany and the Eurozone.
The Eurozone Producer Price Index (PPI) scheduled for release this morning is not a big market mover so the direction of the pair may take cues from the US Trade Balance and Markit Services PMI number due later in the American trading session.
Data to watch
09.30 GBP - Services PMI
15.00 USD - ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Posted in Daily Market News on Nov 5 2019