With the German ZEW survey being the only major data release today the market will be looking at tomorrow’s Bank of England minutes.
The minutes of the BoE MPC meetings are published two weeks after the interest rate decision. The minutes give a full account of the policy discussion, including differences of view. Importantly they also record the votes of the individual members of the Committee, as such the market can clearly see how much support a given policy measure has. If, for example, the market sees that there was 1 vote (out of 9 members) for an interest rate increase then this, in the market’s view, increases the chances of an interest rate rise and GBP would strengthen.
This month there is next to no chance of seeing votes for interest rate rises BUT there may be some detail on whether the BoE views falling unemployment as a threat to price stability (manifesting itself in the inflation rate) and therefore if this will bring forward any plans for interest rate rises/tightening policies, albeit still years away.
Posted in Daily Market News on May 30 2014