GBPMonday morning saw more choppy trading for the Pound and an early dip to near 1.3160 against the Dollar. Sterling regained ground on increasing speculation that a third meaningful vote would occur this week, before renewed selling as the US came online after lunch.

GBPChoppy trading conditions continued but the extension to Article 50 provided some support to the Pound. Speculation of a move towards a ‘softer’ Brexit increased but the clouds of uncertainty remain. Sterling also faced weaker risk appetite and a retreat in oil prices, but the upper lip remained stiff.

GBPFebruary’s retail sales figures bounced back by 0.4% on the previous month. An unusually warm February contributed to broad-based spending with only food sales dropping. The Bank of England (BoE) held interest rates at 0.75% as expected, and recent data being mixed and Brexit outcome still unknown, this was always...

GBPHeadline UK consumer price inflation edged up to 1.9%, beating expectations of no change. The core inflation rate, however, nudged down to 1.8% from 1.9% previously. Sterling and Interest Rate Futures were unchanged by the data. The latest CBI industrial survey reported the weakest growth rate since May 2018.

GBPUK labour market data surprised with a drop in unemployment to a 44-year low of 3.9%, while the employment increases had also out-performed expectations. Annual average earnings growth beat forecasts of a drop when it held at 3.4%, but the jobless claimant count increased.

GBPThe Pound slipped lower yesterday morning in what looked to be to start of a slow day. The Ulster Unionists made no indication they would accept the Withdrawal Agreement and therefore there was little chance that key Conservative MPs would revert to accepting the deal.

GBPThe Pound rose last Friday afternoon on speculation that the Ulster Unionists were moving closer to supporting the Withdrawal Deal. The government reiterated that the Article 50 extension would be lengthy if the deal was not passed, increasing pressure on Conservative MPs to vote for the deal.

GBPThe Bank of England’s Jonathan Haskel stated that he’d need evidence of higher inflation to convince him to vote to raise interest rates and expressed concerns over the risks to labour-market strength. Despite the dovish rhetoric, the Sterling impact was limited as the market was distracted by political developments.

GBPPhilip Hammond delivered the government’s Spring budget in the run-up to the No-Deal vote. UK GDP growth forecast for 2019 dropped to 1.2% from 1.6%, but lower borrowing forecasts and stronger wages growth negated any negative Sterling impact.

GBPUK Manufacturing output registered a 0.8% increase in January, bouncing back from a 0.7% decline in December. GDP recovered 0.5% in January for a year-on-year increase of 1.4%, up from 1.0% in December. But who listens to the data when we have Brexit?