GBPEU Council President Donald Tusk stated on Friday that the UK had a choice of ‘no deal’ or no Brexit if parliament rejects the current Withdrawal bill. Markets had factored in the deal being rejected and speculation around a second referendum increased.

GBPUK mortgage approvals beat forecasts with a seven-month high and net consumer lending data was also above consensus forecasts, supporting confidence in the spending outlook, but consumer confidence dipped. Sterling drifted weaker ahead of the New York open as the Bank of England's Brexit deal scenarios were digested.

GBPPhilip Hammond presented a UK Government forecast confirming that the GDP outlook would be lower under the proposed Brexit deal, but no-deal would be significantly worse for the economy compared with staying within the EU. Sterling made up some lost ground on increased speculation that Labour might push for a...

GBPSterling moved sharply lower yesterday as political events dominated. Former Cabinet Minister Fallon stated that the current Brexit agreement had no chance of being approved and should be re-negotiated. Following President Trump’s trade comments (see below), underlying sentiment deteriorated further and Sterling declined to below 1.2770 against the Dollar.

GBPThe British Pound underperformed, accelerating downward this morning just ahead of the opening bell in Europe. The fall seems linked to dimming prospects for passing the Brexit deal championed by Prime Minister Theresa May.

GBPThe Pound has been firmer of late, although remains vulnerable considering PM May will now face her biggest challenge when she takes the Brexit deal to the UK Parliament where she needs it to be approved. This is where the major risk lies for the Pound.

GBPEU Council President Tusk stated that agreement had been made on the “future relationship” political declaration and Sterling spiked higher with a push above 1.2900 against the Dollar while the Euro retreated back above 1.1300. Theresa May stated that some issues remained, including Gibraltar, although she was confident that an...

GBPUK monthly borrowing fell well short of expectations with a print of £7.956bn; the largest October deficit in three years. Although the monthly data disappointed, the year-to-date deficit declined to £26.7bn from £37.9bn last year.

GBPUK CBI industrial orders strengthened to 10 for November from -6 previously and overall confidence increased. The Bank of England was understandably cautious in testimony to the Treasury Select Committee; Mark Carney stated that investment was likely to recover with a Brexit deal, but there would be a sharp slide...

GBPPolitical tensions continue to constrain Sterling although volatility yesterday was low by recent standards. David Davis, former Brexit Secretary, commented that he did not expect a leadership challenge to Theresa May but intense speculation surrounding the number of votes needed to trigger a challenge remained.